Fears of wider war in the Middle East

The prospect of escalation will alarm foreign leaders who have turned a blind eye to the Hezbollah threat for too long

Ever since Hamas terrorists invaded Israel last October, murdering more than 1,100 people and kidnapping about 250, the fear has been of a wider regional conflict. On several occasions it appeared as if a clash between Israel and Iran was likely either directly or through its proxies in the region, notably Hezbollah based in Lebanon.
Thousands of missiles have been fired in the southern border regions aimed at Israel, and at the weekend one killed at least 12 people, including children, in the Golan Heights – which has been occupied since the 1967 war. Israel says the rocket was launched from a village in southern Lebanon and hit a football pitch in a Druze minority area where boys and girls were playing.
While Hezbollah denied responsibility, it has previously fired a number of missiles at northern Israeli towns, and most Western observers, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, say the Shi’a group was responsible. Indeed, its media outlets admitted it had launched a rocket but claimed the target was a military compound.
It is telling that when Israel claims to be targeting Hamas positions in Gaza it is condemned if there are civilian casualties. Yet there are no demonstrations in the streets against Hezbollah or its paymasters in Tehran, another example of the double standards seen in the response to October 7.
The Israeli government’s rhetoric in response to the killings is similar to that after October 7 – that it will exercise the right to self-defence and the perpetrators will be punished. The prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said they would pay “a heavy price”. The Israeli air force hit a number of targets inside Lebanon in retaliation, with pressure growing for more concerted action.
But Hezbollah is an altogether different challenge to Hamas, whose extirpation has proved to be difficult enough. It is heavily weaponised, courtesy of Iran, and its fighters have been hardened by participation in the Syrian civil war. Israel invaded Lebanon in 2006 in a bid to counter the Hezbollah threat but withdrew after 34 days following a UN-brokered ceasefire. While many of its missile bases were destroyed they have since been rebuilt, often hidden inside villages or underground.
There are some inside Israel who say both Hamas and Hezbollah need to be dealt with if the country is to be secure. Yet the prospect of a war spreading across the Middle East to the Gulf will alarm foreign governments who have turned a blind eye to the threat from Hezbollah for too long.